How Russia & China Are Likely to Interpret Reza Pahlavi’s Call for Regime Change in Iran

 

 

Reza Pahlavi’s appeal to the international community to support the overthrow of the Iranian government would be viewed by Russia through a distinctly strategic and ideological lens. From Moscow’s perspective, such a call aligns closely with Western-backed “regime change” efforts, which Russia has consistently opposed in global politics.

Regime Change as a Western Strategy

Russia has long criticized external attempts to alter the political systems of sovereign states. In the Russian narrative, Western powers—particularly the United States and its allies—have used democracy and human rights rhetoric to justify political intervention in countries that resist Western influence. Reza Pahlavi’s call would therefore be interpreted not as a purely domestic Iranian movement, but as part of a broader Western strategy to weaken an unfriendly government.

Moscow is especially sensitive to this issue due to past interventions in countries such as Iraq, Libya, and Syria, where regime change led to prolonged instability. As a result, Russia tends to frame such efforts as violations of international law and national sovereignty.

Iran as a Strategic Partner of Russia  

Iran occupies a crucial place in Russia’s geopolitical calculations. Both countries face Western sanctions and share an interest in counterbalancing U.S. influence in the Middle East. Their cooperation spans military coordination, energy policy, and diplomatic alignment in international forums.

From this standpoint, any movement aimed at toppling the current Iranian government would be seen by Russia as a direct threat to its strategic interests. A post-regime-change Iran that is more aligned with the West would significantly reduce Russia’s leverage in the region.

Skepticism Toward Reza Pahlavi’s Political Legitimacy 

Russia is also likely to question Reza Pahlavi’s political credibility inside Iran. From Moscow’s view, he lacks a strong, organized political base within the country and is largely supported by Iranian expatriates and Western media platforms. This weak internal legitimacy would make Russia reluctant to recognize him as a genuine representative of the Iranian population.

Instead, Russian analysts would probably characterize him as a symbolic figure amplified by external actors rather than a leader emerging organically from domestic political structures.

Concerns About Regional Stability 

Another key concern for Russia is regional security. A sudden collapse of the Iranian government could lead to prolonged unrest, internal conflict, or the rise of extremist groups. Such instability could spill over into neighboring regions, including the Caucasus and Central Asia, areas of direct strategic concern for Moscow.

Russia generally prioritizes predictable state authority over uncertain political transitions, especially in regions close to its borders.

The Issue of Western Double Standards

Finally, Russia would likely highlight what it perceives as Western double standards. From Moscow’s viewpoint, Western governments support protest movements or opposition figures only when it serves their geopolitical interests, while ignoring similar movements in allied states. Reza Pahlavi’s international appeal would thus be framed as selective support driven by strategic calculations rather than genuine concern for democratic principles.

China’s Perspective 

China’s foreign policy generally emphasizes non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. Its strategic goals in this context include:

• Maintaining geopolitical stability: Any instability in Iran could pose risks to Chinese investments and trade in the region. 
• Energy security: China imports oil and gas from Iran, so political upheaval could disrupt supply.
• Consistency with international stance: China usually avoids supporting regime change or external intervention, as it conflicts with its principle of sovereignty and stable governance. 

Possible Interpretation

• From China’s viewpoint, Reza Pahlavi’s call may appear as an appeal for foreign intervention.
• China would likely see this as a source of instability, which could threaten trade, contracts, and energy security.
• Therefore, while recognizing it as a political effort by an opposition figure, China is unlikely to offer direct support.  

 Conclusion

In summary, Russia would most likely interpret Reza Pahlavi’s call for regime change in Iran as a Western-backed political maneuver aimed at undermining a key Russian ally. Rather than viewing it as a legitimate democratic movement, Moscow would frame it as external interference that threatens regional stability, violates state sovereignty, and serves Western geopolitical interests.  

• China’s view: Prioritizes internal stability and its strategic interests; will avoid direct involvement. 
• Implication: China would treat this as a political initiative by an opposition leader, not as something warranting intervention. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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